🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."